Bitcoin holds near $86,000 a year after its record

One year ago today bitcoin set its all-time high of about $126,000. On Tuesday morning, October 6, it traded near $86,200. That leaves it roughly 31% lower than a year ago, according to Yahoo Finance, though up 7.4% over the past month. Ether traded near $2,716, down about 40% on the year.

A year below the peak feels long. By bitcoin's own history it is not. 24/7 Wall St. counts 38, 36 and 28 months between earlier peaks and the records that eventually replaced them. On that pattern, the market is less than halfway through a typical wait.

The depth of the decline is also out of character, in a milder direction. Previous cycles saw falls of 77% to 85% from the top. This one is about a third. That can be read two ways. Either the market has matured and the violent drawdowns of earlier cycles are behind it, or this decline simply has further to run. The anniversary does not settle which.

For now the price is taking its cues from outside crypto. Monday's gain followed a weak US jobs report that lowered interest-rate expectations. That makes the next round of US economic data the nearest test, more than anything happening on a blockchain.