Bitcoin's volatility sits at 1.2%, near a 2026 low, as traders wait on the Fed and the midterms; K33 expects the calm to break

Bitcoin has gone quiet, and the people who measure it say that typically does not last. The coin's 28-day realized volatility stands at 1.2%, close to its lowest reading of 2026, according to K33 research reported by The Block. Bitcoin has traded between $80,000 and $84,000 over the past week and has been range-bound since September 21, while average daily spot volume slipped 1% to $2.5 billion.

"Expansions typically follow such compressions, and we expect BTC volatility to pick up shortly," K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said, per The Block. The catalysts are on the calendar: the Federal Reserve's rate decision on October 28, where K33 says markets price an 80% chance of no change, and the US midterm elections on November 3.

The flows are not quiet at all. BlackRock's IBIT took in the equivalent of 8,128 BTC on October 19, its largest daily inflow in bitcoin terms since April 2025, while all US spot bitcoin ETFs netted 6,436 BTC, meaning the other funds together shed 1,692 BTC, per K33 data in The Block. K33 also notes bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed again, with nearly identical returns over the past two weeks; bitcoin lost about 2% during last week's equity sell-off.

On Wednesday bitcoin was about $83,350, per The Block's price page. CoinDesk reported it rose 1.3% to just above $82,700 in Asian hours as SpaceX and Super Micro Computer earnings lifted tech futures, with ether up 2% to about $2,450 and Zcash up 11% after developers set the activation block height for its NU7 upgrade. On CoinDesk's live blog, Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said a decisive and sustained break below $82,500 could expose bitcoin to a slide toward $70,000, which the blog said matches market maker Wintermute's downside case; the blog added that a move back above $84,000 would take that scenario off the table.

Hashdex data cited by CoinDesk adds context: bitcoin's bear phase had run 359 days as of September 30, against 361, 377 and 411 days for the three previous ones, and short-term holders own 16% of supply, the lowest since January 2023.