Galaxy calls the bitcoin bottom at June's low and says 55% of all coins sit in wallets nobody can name

Galaxy Research has put a date on the bottom. In a report shared with The Block on Monday, the firm said bitcoin's bear market ended in June, when the price set its low on June 30, and that the weekly close has held above the 50-week moving average for five straight weeks through October 18 after 44 consecutive weeks beneath it. "We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left," wrote Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, who concluded that the firm sees now as an attractive time to buy and hold.

Galaxy's evidence includes slowing sales by old holders: coins untouched for at least five years moved at about 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, down from 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024, with ETFs and public treasury companies absorbing much of that supply. Thorn set his own test: a weekly close below the 50-week average, now about $76,540, that is not recovered within a month would challenge the call. Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Monday, about 36% below its October 2025 record of around $126,000, per The Block.

CoinDesk, citing Galaxy's October supply snapshot, reported that about 11.1 million BTC, roughly 55% of the 20.1 million mined, sit in addresses with no known owner, a figure Thorn reads as a sign that self-custody remains widespread. Those coins may also include lost keys and unidentified institutions.

Cryptoweek does not give investment advice. What to watch: Wednesday's Fed decision and the next weekly close against the 50-week average.