Bernstein slashes Coinbase's target to $250 from $330 and now expects a 2026 loss, three days before earnings, while lifting Circle

Bernstein has stopped waiting for a crypto rally. In a Monday report ahead of third-quarter earnings, analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia cut their Coinbase price target to $250 from $330, lowered their 2026 revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion and swung their full-year estimate to a loss of $2.60 a share from a profit of $5.97, The Block reported. "We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates," they wrote. They expect third-quarter spot trading to stall at about $150 billion, with stablecoin revenue the main growth driver, and see prediction markets and derivatives producing about $2 billion of revenue by 2028, up from roughly $600 million earlier this year.

The rating on all three stocks stays Outperform. For Robinhood, Bernstein kept a $160 target and projected prediction-market revenue of $1.7 billion in 2028, slightly ahead of $1.6 billion from crypto, per The Block and Cointelegraph. For Circle it raised the target to $145 from $140 on Arc token presales and reserve yields, even as USDC supply slipped to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter.

The Block put Coinbase shares just above $162 on Monday, down more than 31% this year, Robinhood at $93.37 and Circle near $80.50. Coinbase says it will publish third-quarter results on Thursday, October 29, after market close.

What to watch: Coinbase's stablecoin and derivatives numbers on Thursday, and whether the quarter confirms Bernstein's $150 billion spot estimate.