Wall Street's fear gauge jumped 21.5% on Friday. History says it usually falls back on Monday, and bitcoin is not flinching

Friday's selling in technology stocks pushed the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, up 21.5% to 19.99, its largest one-day rise since June 5, while the S&P 500 lost 1.09%, CoinDesk reported on Sunday. The index is built from S&P 500 options prices and tracks the swings traders expect over the next four weeks.

CoinDesk looked back at every Friday since January 1990 on which the VIX jumped 20% or more. Excluding this one, there were 32. The index fell the following Monday in 25 of them and rose in seven, including August 2015, February 2018 and August 2024. A month later it was lower in 25 of the 32 cases, with a median drop of 16%.

Not everyone is betting on calm. Traders bought about 9,200 November 18 calls at a 20 strike for $1.7 million and 12,500 at a 23 strike for $1.1 million, CoinDesk said, citing CNBC: a wager that the VIX ends above 23 by the third week of November.

Crypto has been quieter. Bitcoin held above $80,000 over the weekend and was at about $80,900 at 2:30pm Pacific on Sunday, according to CoinGecko, and Volmex's bitcoin volatility index sat just under 40%. "None of the above guarantees a stable Monday," CoinDesk cautioned. Monday's US open is the first test.