JPMorgan puts bitcoin in its ten-year forecast for the first time and pencils in 10% a year, ahead of stocks, bonds and gold

JPMorgan Asset Management has added bitcoin to its annual long-term return forecast, and its base case is 10% a year for the next decade. The figure appears in the firm's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, a report that covers more than 200 assets, per Cointelegraph. It is the first time the assumptions have included a range of long-term return forecasts for bitcoin.

On the report's base case, bitcoin outpaces the four traditional asset classes CoinDesk cites from it: US large-cap equities at 7.5%, small caps at 7.7%, US bonds at 5.6% to 6.6% and gold at 5.5%, per CoinDesk. The range is wide. CoinDesk reports a bull case of 17% a year and a bear case of a 9.7% annual loss; Cointelegraph gives 16.6% and an 11.2% loss. The calculations weighed bitcoin's supply growth against the money supply, its possible role alongside gold and network adoption, per Cointelegraph.

The firm says it sees bitcoin "as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing," per Cointelegraph, and it makes no case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier because of its unstable correlations with other assets. Portfolio manager Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo described it as a high-beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth and whose fundamentals are not cash flows, which complicates forecasting, per CoinDesk.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said on X that after being ignored, laughed at and fought, bitcoin had been added to the firm's long-term assumptions paper, per Cointelegraph. Cryptoweek does not give investment advice.