TD Cowen warns the CFTC's crypto rulebook may not be finished until early 2028, when it could run into the presidential election

The crypto rules the Commodity Futures Trading Commission began writing a week ago may take until the next presidential election to finish, a Wall Street policy analyst says. Jaret Seiberg, a managing director at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, wrote in a note on Monday that the agency probably will not complete the rulemaking until early 2028, which raises the risk that it is never finalized, The Block reported.

The steps are slow by design. The CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on October 5 for two planned rules, Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets. Comments are due 60 days after the notice is published in the Federal Register. Formal proposed rules come next, and Seiberg expects them late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027 at best. Final rules follow after that.

Moving faster carries its own danger: Seiberg said rushing would make it more likely that a judge blocks the rules on procedural grounds. "Even if the agency is careful, we still expect legal challenges could extend beyond 2028," he wrote.

He called the notice a positive step for crypto platforms. The plan covers leveraged and margined trading, leaves ordinary spot trades out, and would require proof-of-reserves audits, The Block reported.

The agencies are acting because Congress did not. The Clarity Act, the market structure bill, failed a procedural vote in the Senate 49 to 50 on September 15. Rules made by one administration can be undone by the next, Seiberg said, according to Cryptopolitan.